“COIN is Dead. Long Live COIN?”
Is it? Really? Or is what we know as insurgency today merely on the verge of a transformation that will redefine a classic form of warfare for generations to come? Are the insurgents of tomorrow already actively operating among us today?
The answer to each of those questions is disturbingly the same. “Yes.”
Somewhere between the Arab Spring and the Occupy protests, the growing public unrest with established sources of power should be duly noted, as well as their movements’ ability to leverage social media to empower their causes. The insidious and often clouded nature of phenomena like the Conficker worm, STUXNET, and Duqu are defining new terrain in the battle for control of the digital frontier. And the activities of groups such as Anonymous, Lulzsec, and even WikiLeaks signal a shift in the capability to produce disproportionate and potentially catastrophic effects in the cyber domain.
A recent report from the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive warned of the danger of aggressive information gathering from China and Russia, and only yesterday the former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs cited that same report in stating the case for establishing deterrents against future cyber attacks.
Should we be concerned with state-sponsored cyber attacks? Should we worry ourselves with the actions of hackers and hacktivists? Should we take action now to protect ourselves from cyber criminals? Those are obviously rhetorical questions. But do these represent the most significant threat to our national security? Not by a long shot.
Consider this: the passion of a major movement fueled by social media, combined with the processing capability of a super-powered botnet, controlled by an organized, motivated shadow group of ultra-hackers. Therein lies the threat. A digital insurgency for which no one – no state, no alliance, no corporation – is prepared to combat. A state is hindered by its own inherent bureaucracy. A corporation by its own myopia. This is a threat that will redefine how we view our enemy, and how we see ourselves.
COIN isn’t dead. We just need to learn to eat soup with a thumb drive.
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barefootstrategist reblogged this from doctrineman and added:
Well crafted thoughts
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